We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for this year's winter weather and spring planting.

Soil Moisture Monitor

The map here highlights the wetness percentile for the root zone (top 1 meter of soil) across the United States. Darker red colors indicate very dry conditions compared to historical observations. In spite of recent snows, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio remain much drier than normal with soil conditions closer to normal across the N. Plains and Upper-Midwest (though some sporadic dryness remains).

Mid-Late February Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Expecting the mid-late February period to feature a colder to much colder than normal pattern for the E. US with the core of the Upper-Midwest, OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. With that, an active clipper pattern with frequent light snow events is likely from the N. Plains through the OH Valley. Mid-late February will feature a better window for a few winter storms to develop especially in the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic and NE US. This will likely be the best opportunity ahead to eat away at drier soils (though frozen grounds may prevent more notable saturation).

March 2026 Outlook

Trends in March have been colder due to a forecasted breakdown of the Polar Vortex in mid-February. Polar Vortex breakdowns will often allow colder than normal temperatures to linger longer into the start of Spring than normal. As a result, our March forecast favors a colder than normal pattern for much of the Northern and Eastern US. Especially the first half of the month, this can also open the door for late season snow / winter storm risks. This looks to be especially prevalent across the N. Plains and Midwest. Expect March to be a cooler and more active month with a lack of extended warm/dry time.

Model Predictions & ENSO Forecast Update

Recent observations indicate ocean waters in this region are at -0.7C highlighting a continued La Niña ongoing. Latest model guidance highlighted below indicates weak La Niña conditions should persist until the end of February before weakening. Signals into spring continue to indicate La Niña fading and the development of warm-neutral conditions late spring - Summer with potential El Niño conditions by Summer or Fall. Historically, transitions from La Niña to El Niño tend to support active patterns especially early Spring (along with slower starts to Spring temperature wise).

April 2026 Outlook

The pattern should gradually warm up in April closer to normal conditions across the OHV and Great Lakes. However, lingering La Niña forcing and perhaps even leftover influence from the late-winter Polar Vortex breakdown can lead to colder than normal risks in the N. Plains and Midwest. This is a setup that can prove to be highly volatile with an active severe weather pattern in the south and bigger storm systems in the Midwest. As a result, expect temperature fluctuations (more than normal) and perhaps a slower start to planting due to the combination of cold shots and frequent moisture (especially in the Midwest). Slightly better conditions to start planting in the lower OH Valley (warmer and seasonal precip).

May 2026 Outlook

As we transition towards an El Niño by late Spring - Early Summer, that pattern driver tends to favor increased risks for late season shots of cold air for the E. US. Especially for the Great Lakes, Upper-Midwest and NE US this can favor later than normal frost potential in May. Analogs are more variable on late frost potential in the OH Valley and signaling earlier than normal in the C. Plains. This set up will also tend to favor a drier pattern. While early season heat is unlikely, due to the drier pattern it is important for areas with ongoing dry issues to cash in on March/April moisture opportunities to prevent worsening drought conditions into the warm season. At this time, we believe the combination of some early Spring moisture and lack of heat will mitigate these risks, but it is something that needs to be monitored carefully ahead. May should also offer up opportunities for better planting weather for the N. Plains and Upper-Midwest that deal with a cooler/wetter April.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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