We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for summer 2026.

Short Term Drought Indicator

The Short Term Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) focuses on 1 - 3 month precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health. This indicator is specifically useful in measuring intense conditions impacting agriculture, top soil moisture and grasslands. The main concern areas sit in S. SD and W. Nebraska with intermittent dryness across the N. Corn Belt region. Outside of that, substantial improvements have occurred with abnormally wet conditions building across E. KS, Missouri, E. IA, Illinois and Indiana.

Medium Range Hazard Map

The first true heat wave of the season will develop next week and through the Fourth of July Holiday. As this occurs, heat indices in the upper-90s and 100s are likely for multiple days. High temperatures will also surge into the 90s in a widespread fashion with some upper-90s likely in the southern half of the Heat Dome. As this begins to retrograde west, expect strong to severe storm cluster potential to rise in the July 2 - 6, 2026 timeframe. The heat dome potential will likely linger beyond this period for parts of the Central and S. Plains.

Mid-Late July Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Following early July heat, the second week of July should start to see a moderation of heat with it pulling into the Western half of the US. Strong global winds combined with a developing Super El Niño will make it difficult for Midwest and E. Ag Belt heat to sustain for long periods this summer in general. As a result, we favor seasonable to slightly cooler air to return to the E. US and build slowly throughout this period with some warmer air lingering in the W. Plains. The pattern will likely also trend more active especially into the third week of July with above normal rainfall favored for much of the Ag Belt.

July Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

We still anticipate July to feature a bit of a mixed bag of both hotter/drier and cooler/wetter periods. The most likely hotter/drier period will be the first ~7 days of the month for the Ag Belt but will feature a “ring of fire” / storm cluster pattern for the N. Ag Belt. With time, expect cooler air to return to the E. Ag Belt and likely even at times mid-July for the entirety of the Ag Belt. As this progression occurs for temperatures, expect the corridor of heavier/more widespread rain potential to shift back into areas that were impacted by excessive rains in June from the S. Plains to the OH Valley.

ENSO Forecast Update

Data has continued to trend aggressively with El Niño - now rivaling or outpacing the strongest El Niño on record (rivaling 2015 and 1997). This will help intensify a robust Pacific Jet stream and flood the US with moisture. Neither of these years featured sustained bouts of heat / dryness as a result throughout Summer and ultimately would be a favorable signal for Corn and Soybean Yields across the Ag Belt.

August Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Current indications would suggest that August holds the highest potential to see the most widespread cooler than normal temperatures of Summer. El Niño years strongly favor an active storm track and increased heavy rain and severe storm cluster risks in August across the Plains and Midwest. August holds the potential overall to be the wettest summer month and should allow for favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans for the back half of the season.

September Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

September holds the highest potential to feature above normal temperatures across the Central US and a less active pattern overall. With a lack of widespread drought/dryness concerns during Summer, this can open up more favorable conditions into the early portion of Harvest season - though some late Summer heat is certainly possible as well. Better rain chances will likely be in the southeast US and perhaps W. Plains, though we do not favor major issues with tropical activity / influences across the US as a whole this September compared to normal.

About the Report:

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