We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for late-fall 2026. We also recently hosted a webinar with John Kemper, a Senior Meteorologist at BAM Weather. Watch the recording of the 2026 Post-Harvest Weather Webinar online today.

Short Term Drought Indicator

The Short Term Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) focuses on 1 - 3 month precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health. This indicator is specifically useful in measuring intense conditions impacting agriculture, top soil moisture and grasslands. The driest conditions currently sit in the mid to lower Mississippi River valley / lower Ohio Valley where well below normal rainfall has occurred in October. Slightly above normal rainfall has occurred for October across the southwest into the W. Ag Belt (NE/KS/IA).

Medium Range Hazard Map

A stretch of drier weather is expected across the N. Plains into Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas following a strong system on the 6th. While it will take time to completely dry out, this should transition the area into a pattern more favorable for wrapping up harvest conditions / winter wheat planting. For the ArkLaTx area and the Deep South, we will need to watch for an uptick of severe weather potential through Mid November due to an active system track.

Mid-November Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

A strong cold front/ system will work across the E. Half of the US on the ~13th – 16th , bringing below normal temperatures for several days. Another front between the 18th – 20th will have a similar effect thanks to the orientation of the polar vortex towards the end of week 3. For the ag belt specifically, warmer and drier conditions will prevail for much of this period, with only S IL, S IN, S MO, and S OH seeing below normal temperatures / seasonable moisture.

November Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Despite lower-than-normal confidence in precipitation vs normal, the cooler air is expected to bring in drier air in the northern US with better moisture chances in the southern US thanks to a ramped up subtropical jet. Given the orientation of the polar vortex, we are leaning cooler for roughly the southern half of the US. After the weeks ¾ time period towards the end of November, we can expect to see a few stronger cold fronts, but milder air to win out across the Ag Belt.

ENSO Forecast Update

El Niño continues to strengthen and we continue to anticipate the strongest El Niño on record which will have substantial implications on the pattern for the rest of Fall into Winter. The general theme with time will be more frequent bouts of mild Pacific air into the US (late fall) leading to a slower start to winter and extended fall season along with an active southern US.

December Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

December will run warmer than normal with extremely above normal temperatures in the Midwest and much above normal temperatures across much of the E. US. This will limit early season snow potential for the Midwest, although the pattern will remain active in the C. US into the Southeast. Given the stronger, subtropical jet projected across the south central, all cold fronts that push into the ag belt will be capable of heavy rain and severe weather (especially the E. Ag Belt into the Ohio Valley).

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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