We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for fall 2026.

Short Term Drought Indicator

The Short Term Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) focuses on 1 - 3 month precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health. This indicator is specifically useful in measuring intense conditions impacting agriculture, top soil moisture and grasslands. The driest conditions currently sit in the W Plains where heat has persisted throughout September. Abnormally wet conditions continue in the Midwest and OH Valley where the ring of pattern / storms has continued over the last 30 days.

Medium Range Hazard Map

A stretch of drier weather is expected across the W. Corn Belt following substantial late September rains. While it will take time to completely dry out, this should transition the area into a pattern more favorable for harvest conditions. However, we will need to monitor a stretch between October 18 - 25th where stronger storm systems can lead to more frequent rain opportunities and less favorable harvest weather.

Mid-October Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

We expect Mid-October to feature numerous cold fronts / blasts of cold air in the Eastern US. This will steadily increase frost/freeze risks throughout the month especially in the E. Ag Belt regions. While a few brief warm ups will be possible east ahead of fronts, the general theme will tend to favor cooler risks in the E. Ag Belt and a slightly warmer than normal pattern in the W. Ag Belt. More consistent warmth will stay in the W. US. For rainfall, the warm west, cool east pattern tends to favor more suppression and as a result we lean drier than normal for the Midwest through the Great Lakes and N. OH Valley. However, an active sub-tropical jet favors moisture south and a stormier period ~October 18 - 25th may allow moisture to bleed north at times preventing a bone dry pattern in the below normal area.

October Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

We overall favor October to average out cooler than normal across the Eastern third of the US with frequent shots of colder air in the OH Valley and Great Lakes. Ups/downs possible in the Midwest and a slight milder lean overall in the N/W Plains. While fronts will still lead to rain opportunities and prevent complete dry time, more windows of opportunity to get field work done for harvest are likely especially in the Midwest and Great Lakes compared to most of September and start of October.

ENSO Forecast Update

El Niño continues to strengthen and we continue to anticipate the strongest El Niño on record which will have substantial implications on the pattern for the rest of Fall into Winter. The general theme with time will be more frequent bouts of mild Pacific air into the US (late fall) leading to a slower start to winter and extended fall season along with an active southern US.

November Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

With El Niño forcing amplifying, we expect a strong Pacific Jet stream to flood mild air into the US and lead to a warmer than normal November overall. The main risk to watch for November would be recurving typhoons in the W. Pacific which can pose a colder risk to the forecast overall. That said, recent Strong El Niño years strongly favor milder air overall. In addition, this favors an active storm track from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southeast US with slightly drier risks across the N. Plains and E. OH Valley.

First Frost Outlook Map

Factoring in upcoming targeted strong cold fronts, the map above highlights general timeframes to start to monitor for frost potential. As we work deeper into October, areas that see frost earlier in the month will need to start monitoring for freeze potential as more powerful mid-October fronts start to develop.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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