We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for late-summer 2026.

Short Term Drought Indicator

The Short Term Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) focuses on 1 - 3 month precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health. This indicator is specifically useful in measuring intense conditions impacting agriculture, top soil moisture and grasslands. The main concern areas sit in the Dakotas and W. Plains with intermittent dryness across the N. Great Lakes region. The southern and eastern portions of the Ag Belt generally continue to show a lack of widespread drought conditions with many spots dealing with abnormally wet conditions.

Medium Range Hazard Map

A heat dome will set up into early-mid August across the Central US - with the core sitting in the S. Plains. This will favor increased storm cluster potential and potential strong to severe storm risks in the Midwest and OH Valley. It can also continue to produce helpful rains for areas that dried out in July.

Mid-Late August Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

This period likely starts slightly more expansive with above normal temperatures with increasing cooler risks with time for the E. Ag Belt to East Coast. The most likely area for more consistent bouts of heat will be the S. Plains and W. Plains into the Mountain West. This set up will continue to favor a drier lean in the S. Plains with less widespread moisture opportunities in the N. Plains to Canadian Prairies. This will favor messy storm clusters across the Midwest leading to “have and have nots” regarding rain totals.

August Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

While there can be periods of heat and ups/downs in August, the most consistently above normal temperatures will be in the Plains and especially the S. Plains. More frequent fronts will lead to seasonable conditions for the E. Ag Belt into the NE US. From a rain perspective this leads to periods of storm clusters that can lead to have and have nots in the Midwest (mix of above and below normal rains). More widespread rains likely for the lower OH Valley to the East Coast with dry risks in the S. Plains and N. Plains.

ENSO Forecast Update

The current El Niño state currently outpaces 2015 and 1997 as the strongest El Niño on record at this point in the year. Data continues to trend stronger with the event - potentially shattering all time El Niño records.

September Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

The risk for hotter than normal temperatures looks to expand a bit eastward into September with the core of above normal temperatures in the N. Plains and Midwest. We also favor drier than normal conditions for the Ag Belt which will exacerbate areas running dry from summer - but also allow for a favorable set up for early Harvest.

First Frost Outlook Map

Initial indications factoring in a mix of top Strong El Niño and oceanic analogs would favor a later than normal first frost for much of the Central and Western US. The map below interpolates expected first frost dates compared to normal (+8d = 8 days later than the normal first frost). The highest risk spots to see an earlier frost than normal will be Mid-Atlantic, but there are a few indications that a near or slightly earlier than normal frost is possible for the OH Valley.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

Did you know? ForGround members can now claim an exclusive 20% discount on a BAM Weather Clarity Ag subscription for one year. Learn more