We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for late Spring 2026.

Short Term Drought Indicator

The Short Term Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) focuses on 1 - 3 month precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health. This indicator is specifically useful in measuring intense conditions impacting agriculture, top soil moisture and grasslands. The map above highlights problem areas in the southeast US and W. Plains with generally favorable or abnormally wet conditions across the Midwest and Great Lakes. The current May forecast would indicate worsening or expansion of short-term drought indicators in South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska with potential improvements in W. KS, OK and the Texas Panhandle.

Medium Range Hazard Map

Our latest field-work/planting outlook breaks down generalized conditions through the first ~2 weeks of May. Areas in yellow will see much below normal precipitation and multiple opportunities for 3+ day dry windows. Areas in brown will also see below normal precipitation and potential for 3+ day dry windows, but deal with pesky light rain risks that can interrupt fi eld work at times. Areas in green will see seasonable to wetter conditions and limited dry windows.

Mid-Late May Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

A pattern shift is underway for May with colder than normal temperatures expected to persist across the E. US in mid-late May. Some periods of warmth are likely for the Plains especially near the mid-way point of May. This set up can lead to continued strong cold fronts and later than normal frost/freeze risks from the N. Plains to Great Lakes/Midwest.This set up also favors northerly fl ow and below to much below normal precipitation in the N. Plains and Midwest. Higher potential for a drier stretch in the E. Ag Belt will come the fourth week of May.

May Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

The overall May outlook closely resembles week’s ¾ as a rather persistent pattern settles in. This set up strongly resembles prior years that developed Strong to Super El Niños including 2023, 2002 and 1997. The main risk would be warmer in the N. Plains from a temperature perspective mid-late month. This set up will suppress more widespread rains south leading to improvement in drought conditions for the S. Central US and Gulf Coast. Expanding dryness/drought likely for portions of the NW Plains.

ENSO Forecast Update

Substantial warming in the Equatorial Pacific has developed at both the surface and subsurface - clear strong El Niño precursor. Confidence is increasing at a minimum of a Strong El Niño developing and potentially a rare Super El Niño (1982, 1997, 2015). This will make El Niño the predominant pattern driver for the upcoming Summer and seasons ahead.

June Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

With El Niño continuing to develop, a more active jet stream can begin to emerge and lead to wetter risks across the Western US and through the S. Plains & OH Valley. However, the risk for June would be that drier than normal conditions hold over from May longer for the C. Plains to Midwest (similar to 2023). While timely rains will remain in the forecast beyond June to prevent more notable/widespread drought and crop concerns mid-late Summer, there is certainly the potential for early season moisture struggles in the primary Corn Belt outside of IL/IN/OH. Lack of substantial heat waves should help limit higher-end concerns as well.

July Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

As noted above, further into Summer timely rains can build northward. Slightly drier than normal conditions can persist in the far Upper-Midwest, but most of the Ag Belt will see seasonable to wetter than normal conditions (and this increases further into August). With an overall cooler pattern, we tend to favor drought expansion to halt/slow and for generally favorable growing conditions in most spots.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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