We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for early summer 2026.

Short Term Drought Indicator

The Short Term Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) focuses on 1 - 3 month precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health. This indicator is specifically useful in measuring intense conditions impacting agriculture, top soil moisture and grasslands. Nebraska and South Dakota continue to produce the highest short-term drought indicators with issues continuing across W. KS/OK and into the Mountain West. Substantial improvements have occurred in the SE US with drought signals lingering but mitigated in the Mid-Atlantic. Some dryness has developed in the Midwest but there remains a lack of notable drought signals for the key Corn Belt region.

Medium Range Hazard Map

Following a dry start to June in the E. Ag Belt, the medium range will favor a more active pattern with Gulf moisture surging into the SE Plains and OH Valley. While outside of the most widespread/heavy moisture, this period can still offer up rain opportunities for the Midwest and N. Plains. In general, this pattern does not favor sustained or substantial dryness for key Corn Belt regions.

Mid-Late June Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

The combination of El Niño and a strong Pacific Jet stream will lead to a milder flow of air across the N. US. While this can lead to above normal temperatures - especially in the N. Central US and Canadian Prairies - this setup does not typically lead to sustained or substantial heat waves across the key Ag Belt regions with a seasonable to cooler lean south and east. From a rainfall standpoint, this setup does not likely produce a “bone dry” pattern with rain opportunities even in areas that average out slightly drier than normal. Risks to the forecast here would be drier in the W. Plains and wetter in the OH Valley overall.

June Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

June likely represents a bit of a mixed bag of precipitation overall with both drier and wetter stretches. In general, we do not favor a “DRY” pattern but one that can average out a bit below normal in the Midwest. If anything, the risk would be to trend wetter in the Midwest and Great Lakes and further limit dry concerns. Above normal rains will likely persist similar to May across the southern Ag Belt regions in the S. Plains to lower OH Valley. Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal for the northern tier of the US with cold fronts and moisture limiting heat across the S and E tiers of the US.

ENSO Forecast Update

Data has continued to trend more and more aggressive with El Niño - now rivaling the strongest El Niño on record (rivaling 2015 and 1997). This will help intensify a robust Pacific Jet stream and flood the US with moisture. Neither of these years featured sustained bouts of heat / dryness as a result throughout Summer and ultimately would be a favorable signal for Corn and Soybean Yields across the Ag Belt.

July Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Top July analogs tend to favor a cooler lean for the Ag Belt as a whole, especially south and east. Some warmer than normal temperatures can continue in the N. Ag Belt regions - especially in early July. In general, July will likely favor even less opportunities for substantial heat compared to normal than June. Top El Niño analogs would also support even more frequent and widespread rain risks into July for much of the Ag Belt with the main drier risks in the Great Lakes.

August Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Current indications would suggest that August holds the highest potential to see the most widespread cooler than normal temperatures of Summer. El Niño years strongly favor an active storm track and increased heavy rain and severe storm cluster risks in July across the Plains and Midwest. August holds the potential overall to be the wettest summer month and should allow for favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans for the back half of the season.

About the Report:

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