We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for Early-Spring 2026.

Soil Moisture Monitor

The map here highlights the wetness percentile for the root zone (top 1 meter of soil) across the United States. Darker red colors indicate very dry conditions compared to historical observations. Expect improvements on future updates following early March excessive rains and flooding in parts of Indiana and Ohio.

Medium Range Hazard Map

Following excessive rains in Early March, mid-March will see additional excessive rain and flooding risks in many of the same areas. Highest concern areas extend from South Illinois through Indiana and North Ohio. While rains will continue to mitigate drought, additional flooding concerns will arise ahead. These rains will prevent any possibility for planting to get going the next several weeks.

Late March Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Following a brief colder stretch in Mid-March, we expect a progressively warmer pattern late March. A mild pacific jet stream will flood the western US with warm air and this warmth can spread east with time. While we do believe the pattern can average out more active, if there is an opportunity for a milder/less active stretch, it is likely somewhere between March 21 - 27 before the pattern turns milder and very active again late March - Early April.

April Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

April looks to be a volatile month overall with early April signals indicating colder risks in the Northern and Central US related to remnant influence of the recent Polar Vortex split. As a result, early planting may be a challenge with frequent storm systems preventing extended dry time and cold shots of air for the Ag Belt. The Plains will likely have a better chance to warm up with drier risks and better planting conditions late April. We will need to monitor late season cold shot risks for the far E. Ag Belt (especially Ohio and east) following a warmer start to the month.

ENSO Forecast Update

We have exited La Niña and trends in sub-surface ocean waters indicate a developing El Niño. Recent forecast trends would increase the risk of a moderate to strong El Niño by late Summer or Fall. In general, years that progress from a La Niña to El Niño can decrease big Ag Belt heat in Summer and increase the risks for a more active storm pattern. Though as the initial transition happens it can suppress moisture away from the Midwest late Spring - Early Summer.

May Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

As we start to see a more concrete transition from a La Niña to El Niño, western US warmth will become more dominant into May with colder shots of air East. This can lead to late frost risks from Ohio and points east, but also suppress moisture for the middle of the country. As a result, expect the Plains to Midwest to run drier than normal in May.

June Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

With El Niño continuing to develop, a more active jet stream can begin to emerge and lead to wetter risks across the Western US and through the Central Plains. Drier risks can begin to shift north and east. While Summer may start dry for the Upper-Midwest, the potential for timely rains and lack of substantial heat should prevent bigger drought concerns. That said, June can still feature slightly above normal temperatures for much of the Central and Western US and more seasonable to cooler temperatures east.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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