We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for early fall 2026.

Short Term Drought Indicator

The Short Term Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) focuses on 1 - 3 month precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health. This indicator is specifically useful in measuring intense conditions impacting agriculture, top soil moisture and grasslands. The driest conditions currently sit in the SW Plains, Mountain West and parts of North Dakota & Minnesota. Abnormally wet conditions are present in the OH Valley following record mid-August rain.

Medium Range Hazard Map

A period of substantial late season heat is expected next week through early September. Numerous days with highs in the upper-90s and low 100s expected in the pink shaded area. Numerous upper-80F to mid-90F days likely in the orange shaded area with heat index values reaching higher values. Some areas will rival their hottest start to September on record.

Mid-September Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Favoring a much warmer than normal period across much of the Central and Southeastern US in Mid-September. Temperatures will naturally decrease with time naturally, but above normal temperatures should persist through the third week of the month at least. This will tend to favor less frequent rain in the south and east US into the OH Valley. More frequent rain opportunities and storm clusters expected across the N. Plains and the Midwest.

September Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

It will likely be one of the hottest starts to September on record for the C. Plains, S. Plains into the OH Valley with the majority of the Central and Eastern US seeing above normal temperatures. A few fronts can lead to brief moderations in the Northern US and along the East Coast - but there are not any real signs of a pattern breakdown through the first two-thirds of September. There is some potential for a moderation in above normal temperatures to end September. This will tend to send better moisture into the Western US and N. Plains but we note that there will still be a messy component to rains.

ENSO Forecast Update

Current El Niño conditions continue to outpace both 1997 and 2015 and current forecast indications suggest that the ongoing event surpasses all prior El Niño events in recorded or reanalysis history (dating back to 1850).

October Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

October will likely feature more variability with a milder lean to start and increasing cooler shots of air in the Eastern US the back half of the month. That said, unless there is a major pattern shift / recurving typhoon, the overall analogs don’t tend to favor big early season blasts of cold air and winter storms. With increasing El Niño forcing, wetter risks are present in the Western Plains and S. US which will aid in some drought relief but likely not completely mitigate problems. Drier risks present for the E. Ag Belt offering up favorable harvest conditions.

First Frost Outlook Map

Initial indications factoring in a mix of top Strong El Niño and oceanic analogs would favor a later than normal first frost for much of the Central and Western US. The map below interpolates expected first frost dates compared to normal (reds = later, blues = earlier). The highest risk spots to see an earlier frost than normal will be Mid-Atlantic with near normal first frost timing in the E. OH Valley.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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