Mid-Summer Weather Outlook and Regenerative Ag Considerations

July 09, 2024  |  By ForGround by Bayer and BAM Weather

Agronomic Summary

In general, the forecast for the next few weeks and months is a little bit of a mixed bag based on your location. Two big stories are the continued moisture in the upper grain belt and the forecasted heat the last half of the growing season.

Long-lasting and excessive moisture in crop fields can lead to late planting or prevent-plant scenarios. In either case, cover crops may be able to fit. For prevent plant acres, cover crops are an excellent choice to help prevent erosion, provide some weed control, capture nutrients, maintain soil biology, among other benefits. Species selection and seeding rates will need to be adjusted from your “normal” cover crop plan.

For late planted crops, especially soybeans, you may be considering interseeding. In some cases, interseeding cover crops may be an option to cover the soil surface, while adding more biomass to the system; however, careful consideration with crop insurance, herbicide carry-over, among others should be noted before hitting the field.

Additional Resources:

Lastly, the expected heat to end the growing season will continue to put some higher chances of early maturity and early harvest, as described last month. This may provide an added window of opportunity for fall seeding and early growth of crops, or even considering winter wheat as a cash crop.

Mid-Summer Weather Outlook

Current Drought Status & Forecasted Areas of Improvement or Degradation

Contentful Weather Outlook Images (8)

The Mid Atlantic has become exceptionally dry over the past 30 days. The short term forecast fortunately does offer a return to more seasonable rains over the short-term for the remainder of July.

The Northern Plains will transition to a brief drier period through roughly July 16th before sporadic moisture events in the area. Due to the record wetness across the Northern Ag Belt, this dryness is welcomed for some.

FORECAST:

There could continue to be issues with prolonged wetness across the Northern AG Belt across Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa as well as Wisconsin. This will be a recurring theme through the final days of July and Into August

The active tropical season makes it worth monitoring for some potential drier trends to areas that have seen above normal moisture, especially when it comes to the month of September. These can work to suppress moisture to the north and enhance moisture potential in the south.

The South Central Plains would pose the greatest threat at running most below normal precipitation through September

While the Mid Atlantic has dried substantially, it is likely to lean slightly below normal overall for precipitation. August seems to be shaping up to be the best month for sporadic rain chances. Portions of the Ohio Valley (N/W) could fare more above normal for the remainder of the growing season while the Eastern Ag Belt can run into issues of rain coverage becoming more sporadic, especially into September. The Eastern Ag Belt can have periods of active weather for a week then experience a drier pattern for 3 -5 days.

July 19 - August 1 Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Contentful Weather Outlook Images (7)

Temperature:

The Western and Eastern United States are in for a very warm remainder of July. Hurricane Beryl has put a notable dent in the previous thinking of extreme heat across the South Central United States, however more of this is concentrated into the Western US. With time, some of this warmth can start to bleed east again into the Ohio Valley post July 14th. The cooling demand runs high as a result with most concentrated heat in populated-dense areas across the week 3-4 period.

Precipitation:

The Western US may be hot, but will fare much below normal for precipitation for the remainder of the month. The AG Belt and Wester OH Valley can begin to work in more weak fronts/systems July 16th onwards. The driest period of the month for the Northern Plains runs present through about the 16th before the above normal locations on the map above flip to a more active pattern again.

August Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Contentful Weather Outlook Images (9)

Temperature:

This forecast looks to be cooler compared to previous outlooks especially for the Central US. However, this month will still continue to be much above normal across the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The risk to this forecast is for the cooler temperatures to trickle East and South into the Central Plains and Gulf Coast. This would flip the temperatures closer to seasonable as opposed to below normal.

Precipitation:

August rainfall will be highly variable across the United States, the higher confidence areas are across the Tennessee Valley for above normal precipitation. This is due to increased tropical threats in addition to moisture working in from high pressure sitting off the east coast. A risk to this forecast would be for the above normal rains to be more blended together or connecting the upper Ohio Valley above normal rain with the Tennessee Valley rain. Tropical threats would increase a drier risk to the Central and Northern Plains.

September Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Contentful Weather Outlook Images (10)

Temperature:

A cooler West with a warmer East will continue to be the persisting pattern into September, and this contains high confidence with recent climatology and strengthening La Niña. The risk to this map is for the warmth to be more expansive north into the Northern Plains with the West Coast running cooler than currently suggesting.

Precipitation:

There is lower confidence overall on the precipitation outlook, as this would favor a more active gulf coast with tropical risks. Considering this, it would pose drier risks to the Ohio Valley, High Plains and Mid-Atlantic. Analogs suggest some more flow can work into Iowa and Minnesota as a wetter mention as well as the gulf coast leaning into much above normal should some tropical systems be observed.

October Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Contentful Weather Outlook Images (11)

Temperature:

October picks up where September left off with the idea of risks of warmth expanding north. This continues to concentrate the much above corridor across the OH Valley and most of the corn/soybean growing seasons. This can prolong the growing season for some in the lower Ohio Valley that have late harvests or were late to plant.

Precipitation:

October can potentially be quite an active month for precipitation. It will come down to how active the hurricane season becomes, as this can trend the Gulf Coast wetter with drier risks north in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

About the Report:

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