We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for the 2026 Winter Season.

Mid-Late January Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Following a mild stretch January 5 - 15, there remains the risk for colder air to return mid-late January. Questions and lower confidence remain regarding the intensity of these colder risks and the exact arrival timing. Right now we are leaning towards January 18 - 20 for a more persistent shift to a cold pattern for the Northern and Eastern US. Split flow may lead to continued drier risks, however, for the Central and SW US with moisture chances up the East Coast. In this type of pattern, we can see increased winter storm potential in the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic with clipper systems (lighter snow events) in the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes.

February Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

The tendency into February will be for the core of the coldest air to set up more consistently into the Northern/NW US with warmth developing in the SE US. With this type of a pattern it can favor more moisture across the OH Valley and into the NE US to help mitigate some of the drier soil moisture. This can also favor bigger winter storm risks for the Midwest.

February Snow Outlook

Taking a closer look at top analogs into late Winter, we see an active winter storm track from the S. Plains to the Great Lakes and NE US as we head into February. The exact placement of above normal snow risks will be highly dependent on the intensity of the SE US warmer risks. While not snowless in the Plains, lingering La Niña influence can lead to drier stretches. Continued clipper systems should allow for adequate snows across the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes. February will likely be a very active month for the Pacific NW mountain regions for snow.

Model Predictions & ENSO Forecast Update

Recent observations indicate ocean waters in this region are at -0.7C highlighting a continued La Niña ongoing. Latest model guidance highlighted below indicates weak La Niña conditions should persist until the end of February before weakening. Signals into spring continue to indicate La Niña fading and the development of warm-neutral conditions late spring - Summer with potential El Niño conditions by Summer or Fall. Historically, transitions from La Niña to El Niño tend to support active patterns especially early Spring (along with slower starts to Spring temperature wise).

March 2026 Outlook

Years that experienced fading La Niña conditions into spring tend to start cooler and more active especially across the Northern tier of the US. Recent post-La Niña March’s have tended to get off to a fast start from a severe weather standpoint as well. Given this, we expect volatility especially across the southern and eastern US in March with bigger storm systems and ups/downs in temperatures. Both late season wintry events and early-season severe weather events will be possible.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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