We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather forecast for Spring 2026.

Soil Moisture Monitor

The map here highlights the wetness percentile for the root zone (top 1 meter of soil) across the United States. Darker red colors indicate very dry conditions compared to historical observations. Some improvements have occurred in the Upper-Midwest and OH Valley over the past month, but conditions have worsened in the W. Plains. Given moisture set up ahead, additional improvements likely for the Midwest and E. Plains but little improvement in the W. Plains.

Medium Range Hazard Map

A quieter stretch of weather is expected following an active first 4 days of the month. A 4 - 5 day dry stretch is likely for the S. Plains to the OH Valley opening a planting window. Several dry days possible north of this in the Midwest, but moisture returns quicker late next week and several frost/freeze risks exist in the blue circled area between April 5th and 8th.

Late April Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperatures are expected to continue to average out much warmer than normal for southern portions of the Ag Belt. While much of the Midwest can average out warmer than normal overall, expect volatility in temperatures with a few big cold fronts leading to big swings in temperatures. The N. Plains/Canadian prairies will be most likely to average out cooler than normal. Expect an overall active pattern to persist for the S. Plains to OH Valley and the Upper-Midwest with less consistent rains in the W. Plains.

April Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

April starts colder in the N. Central US and very warm across the southern and eastern tier of the US. The very active start to the month combined with more mid-month moisture will allow the N/E Ag Belt to average out wetter than normal. Though a brief window of dry time is likely April 5 - 9, we are concerned about increased moisture and some planting delays from MO to N. Texas.

ENSO Forecast Update

Data has continued to trend more aggressively with the coming El Niño into the summer. Latest indications support a moderate El Niño risk by the summer months and a potential strong El Niño by late summer/fall. El Niño’s of this strength are rather rare especially in Summer. The most recent examples are 2023, 2015 and 1997.

May Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

El Niño forcing will take hold more notably into May which will allow for the core of warmer than normal temperatures to shift into the Western half of the US. This set up can lead to shots of colder air in the E. US and late frost risks especially in the Upper-Midwest and NE US (including parts of Ohio). This set up should favor a less active pattern and drier than normal risks for the Ag Belt. While this may lead to worsening drought conditions in spots, it should also allow for a favorable finish to planting season.

June Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

With El Niño continuing to develop, a more active jet stream can begin to emerge and lead to wetter risks across the Western US and through the S. Plains. Drier risks can begin to shift north and east. While Summer may start dry for the Midwest, the potential for timely rains and lack of substantial heat should help prevent worsening of drought concerns. The highest risk area would be the SW Plains where drought feedback could lead to drier risks vs. the outlook.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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