We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for December 2025 and the beginning of 2026.

Soil Moisture

Here is a look at the top 3 feet (100 cm) of soil moisture (in terms of percentiles) for this time of year. Lack of consistent rains for N. Illinois, N. Indiana, N. Ohio and Michigan have led to very low soil moisture percentiles persisting throughout October and now into November. Upcoming snow opportunities should help long-term in mitigating some of the low soil moisture, but it will likely take the duration of the season to see complete improvement.

Early/Mid December Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

The middle part of December may feature some ups/downs with warmth trying to build at times across the S. US. However, a more consistent fl ow of cold air persists across the N. tier of the US especially for the Upper-Midwest. At times expect a few notable shots of arctic air from the Midwest to the NE US. The pattern should remain stormy with winter storm risks from the Midwest, Ohio Valley and to the interior NE US.

December Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

We are overall favoring a colder than normal December outside of the Gulf Coast and SW US. Much below normal temperatures expected across the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes with shots of cold extended at times across the Plains and NE US. With the colder air, expect above normal snow potential and above normal moisture for the Great Lakes and parts of the N. Plains/Upper-Midwest.

Model Predictions & ENSO Forecast Update

Recent observations indicate ocean waters in this region are at -0.8C highlighting a continued La Niña ongoing. Latest model guidance highlighted below indicates weak La Niña conditions should persist into December - January - February. Into December, weak La Niña’s tend to favor colder than normal risks for the northern tier of the (especially for the N. Plains and Upper-Midwest), though this ENSO state can increase variability in January. Signals into spring indicate La Niña fading and the development of warm-neutral conditions late spring - Summer. Into spring this can favor a cooler/drier start to spring in the Plains and a wet E. Ag Belt.

January 2026 Outlook

Cold air will have the tendency to bleed further south more consistently in January for the Eastern US. A few notable shots of cold air will be possible though there may be more ups/downs for the US as a whole mid-late month. Expect the pattern to be drier overall but still offer up winter storm risks for the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic and NE US.

Winter Snow Outlook

Looking at winter overall, we expect a snowier than normal winter across the Great Lakes and interior NE US with increased risks of winter storms vs. normal across the lower OH/TN Valley into the New Year. The Plains may struggle to see more consistent winter storms especially for the middle part of the winter and ultimately end up less snowy than normal. February, however, may offer up some bigger blockbuster storms for the Midwest.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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