We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for the beginning of 2025. This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make smart choices for your farm. Each month, you’ll get a regional weather analysis, including precipitation, temperature trends and agronomic insights to help guide your planning.

Soil Moisture & Precipitation Rankings

Soil Moisture
Here is a look at the top 3 feet (100 cm) of soil moisture (in terms of percentiles) for this time of year. Key observations include the majority of the Midwest/Northern US continuing to remain in the bottom 10th percentile (very dry) of soil moisture. This is likely to continue into spring, especially in the Northern/Central Plains. Areas seeing better soil moisture include the Lower OH Valley (S IN/KY), TN Valley, and the Northeast US.

Precipitation Rankings
Also, a look at precipitation rankings since November 1st, 2024. Browns and lower numbers represent drier conditions with greens and high numbers representing wetter conditions in this period. As we can see, the majority of the Central US through the Ag Belt and into the NW has been dry since November, with portions of TX, OK, KS, IA, MO, and AK seeing top 10 driest stretches during this timeframe.

Early/Mid February Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Here is a look at the first ~2 weeks of February temp forecast. This will be a transitional period of warmer air in the Plains to end January moving south/east through the first half of February with colder air rushing back into the Northern US. Once averaged out, above normal temperatures will be widespread across the Southern/Eastern US with below normal temperatures across the Northern US/OH Valley. The pattern overall will also allow for more fluctuation in temperatures vs persistence in the TN/OH Valley and Great Lakes.

Precipitation
Precipitation for the early/middle parts of February will be focused in the Eastern US. The most active corridor of precip will stretch from the TN Valley through the NE US. Drier conditions will continue across the SW US and Central/Southern Plains for this timeframe. Moisture in the NW US will at times be able to work into the Upper Midwest (Dakotas, W MN) that can allow some relief from dry conditions currently ongoing.

February Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Looking ahead to February as a whole, colder air with below normal temperatures will win out for areas generally west of the Appalachian Mountains with above normal temperatures along the East Coast. One of the risks will be a warmer one in the Northern/Central Plains with a slower transition from warm to cold to start the month, however still favoring below normal temperatures nonetheless.

Precipitation
Precipitation for the month of February will be above normal across the TN/OH Valley and through the Northeast United States, along with the High Plains. Below normal precip chances will stretch across the Southern US and up into the Mountain West/West Coast. Due to the dryness ongoing across the Central/Northern Plains, the risk will be that persistence wins out and drier conditions can bleed further into the Dakotas/Minnesota/Iowa areas.

Model Predictions & Spring Weather Outlook

Model Predictions
As we work into 2025, we continue to watch the evolution of El Nino / La Nina. The majority of the data is settling between the Black and Red lines, signaling a cool neutral/weak La Nina. This progression of the “ENSO” cycle continues to favor a wetter start to spring across the Eastern 1/3 of the US with a drier Central US. This would also typically signal a cooler first half of spring across the Northern/Central US with a warmer than normal Southern US.

Spring Temperature
Above is our current Spring temp forecast (March, April, May). Colder temperatures for March/April will drive this forecast of below-normal temperatures across the Northern/Central US with above-normal temperatures across the Southern US. The end of spring (May) will see a flip of above-normal temperatures, however, for everywhere outside the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic.

Spring Precipitation Outlook & Late Spring / Summer Drought Concerns

Spring Precipitation
The latest Spring forecast for precipitation remains generally unchanged from our preliminary thinking last month. An active March/April is expected across the Northwest US and Great Lakes through the Gulf Coast before precip becomes confined to the Eastern US to end Spring. This will allow for these areas to average out above normal precipitation wise, with the Central US expected to remain drier than normal with below normal precip chances in Spring.

Drought Concerns
Here is a look at our thinking of the general pattern setup to end Spring and begin Summer of 2025. The current thinking is that high pressure can set up across the Northern/High Plains, allowing for “ridging” across the Central/Western US. With these set ups, this can allow above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances in the Central US, raising drought concerns across the Central and Northern Plains/Western Ag Belt.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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