We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for mid-summer 2025.

Key Insights

• The southeastern U.S. and East Coast are experiencing high soil moisture, while the Central Plains and Great Lakes are notably dry. Precipitation rankings from May 1st show the Southeast and East Coast as exceptionally wet, correlating with the high soil moisture. Drier regions in the Ag Belt, including parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois, continue to have below-normal soil moisture.
  
• Early July forecasts indicate widespread above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S., particularly in the Ag Belt and Southwest, with cooler temperatures in the South Central/Gulf Coast. Precipitation will be uneven in the Ag Belt due to storm clusters, favoring the eastern part, East Coast, and Southeast. The Northern Plains, Northwest, and Central/Southern Plains are expected to have below-normal precipitation.
  
• Looking at July as a whole, the Western U.S. and Northern Plains will remain warm, while the Eastern and Southern U.S. may see some heat relief. Most of the Ag Belt will still average above-normal temperatures. Precipitation patterns will resemble the first half of the month, with better rain chances in the Eastern and Southeastern U.S., and monsoonal flow in the Southwest. The Western and Northern U.S. are expected to be drier.
  
• Predictions into late summer and early fall suggest a neutral to weak La Niña pattern, favoring above-normal warmth in the Central/Western U.S. and more variable temperatures in the Eastern U.S. Drier conditions are expected in the Western U.S., with a more active Eastern and Southern U.S. The severe weather outlook indicates the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, OH Valley, and NE U.S. will be most active, leading to sporadic rain patterns in the Eastern Ag Belt.

Soil Moisture & Precipitation Rankings

Soil Moisture
Here is a look at the top 3 feet (100 cm) of soil moisture (in terms of percentiles) for this time of year. Key observations include the majority of the SE US and East Coast are seeing better soil moisture in the top 20th percentile (wet soil), with coverage near normal into the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. While not as widespread as this time last month, locations across the Central Plains through the Great Lakes rank in the bottom 20th percentile (very dry) of soil moisture, the driest parts of the Ag Belt at this time.

Precipitation Rankings
Here is a look at precipitation rankings since May 1st. The majority of the SE US and East Coast ranking in the top 10 wettest May-June’s on record so far due to the active last two months helps to attribute to the wetter soils being seen across these areas. Not by coincidence, the areas it has been drier and seemingly “skipped over” more times than not with sporadic patterns across the Ag Belt are where soils are still remaining drier than normal in E NE, N KS, IA, WI, and N IL.

Early July Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Here is the temperature forecast for the first half of July. Above/much above normal temperatures will continue to be widespread across much of the United States for this period, with the core of most prominent heat being seen across the Ag Belt and through the SW US. Cooler to more seasonal temperatures will be more so locked into the South Central/Gulf Coast for this period. Risk to the forecast is that much above normal temperatures can be suppressed into the High Plains/Western US, allowing for slightly cooler trends in the Midwest.

Precipitation
Precip for the early/middle parts of July will be “messier” across the Ag Belt with continued storm cluster risks. These set ups will allow for have and have nots, with the better shots of precip lying further into the E Ag Belt, East Coast, and SE US. Below normal precip chances will be seen across the N Plains and into the NW US, along with the Central/Southern Plains (KS, MO, OK, N TX) with better storm cluster risks remaining to the N/NE.

July Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
As we look at July as a whole, the back half of the month will see the core of the warmth continue to settle into the Western US/Northern Plains, allowing for some relief from the heat into the Eastern/Southern US. Nonetheless, once all averaged out, the majority of the Ag Belt will still average out above normal in terms of temperatures. The risk will be that the NE US/Great Lakes can see enough volatility to trend closer to more seasonal but still expecting periods of above to much above normal heat.

Precipitation
July as a whole will look similar precip wise to the first half of the month. Better rain chances will be seen into the Eastern US and through the SE US, along with monsoonal flow into the SW US. The above normal temperatures across the Western/Northern US will be accompanied by below normal precip chances as well. The risk is across the Central Plains/through the E Ag Belt even to end July for storm cluster risks than can provide more sporadic/non-uniform rain chances.

Model Predictions & Summer Weather Outlook

Model Predictions
As we work into the middle of Summer and start of Fall, we continue to watch the evolution of El Nino / La Nina. The majority of the data is settling between the black and red lines, signaling a neutral to weak La Nina. This progression of the “ENSO” cycle would continue to favor above normal warmth across the Central/Western US with more volatile/more seasonal temperatures in the Eastern US to end Summer/begin Fall. For this same timeframe, it would also favor drier conditions in the Western US with a more active Eastern/Southern US.

Final Summer Forecast
The picture above is our final Summer temp forecast (June, July, August). Above to much above normal temperatures overall will continue to remain prevalent in the Western US through August with warmer conditions overall favored into the Midwest and NE US as an above normal August temperature-wise is favored. Areas that will look to be below normal overall for the rest of Summer will be the SE US and into Gulf Coast, with more ups/downs favored overall into the South Central/S OH Valley.

Final Summer Precipitation Outlook

Summer Precipitation
The final Summer precipitation outlook, while not as dry as previous updates, still remains below normal in terms of precip chances across much of the Central/Northern Plains. This dryness will stretch into the NW US throughout the rest of Summer. Areas already active to start Summer will continue to remain so, with the most active corridors stretching across the Southern US and into the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.

Severe Weather Outlook
The above image is a look at the severe weather outlook for the rest of Summer. The most active areas of severe weather will be in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and stretching through the OH Valley/NE US. This above normal risk of severe weather, due to the above-mentioned “storm clusters,” will not only allow for severe storms but also more sporadic rain set ups, leading to the have/have nots with rain chances moving forward across the Eastern Ag Belt into late June and July especially.

About the Report:

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