We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for late summer 2025.

Key Insights

• Soil moisture conditions vary across the US. The Lower Ohio Valley through the South-Central US shows high soil moisture, while the Upper Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and parts of the Southeast are trending drier. The Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest have seen increased soil moisture compared to the previous month.

• Precipitation patterns in early July correlate with soil moisture trends. Above-normal rain in Northeast, Iowa, and the Lower Ohio Valley supports increased soil moisture. Sporadic rainfall in the Southeast, Upper Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes corresponds with drier soil conditions.

• The early August temperature forecast indicates a return to above-normal temperatures in the Eastern US and Ohio Valley after a cool start to the month. The Eastern Ag Belt and Great Lakes will experience the most significant warmth, while the Western US will be cooler. Precipitation chances favor areas over the ridge into the Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and East Coast, with more sporadic coverage in the Ohio Valley and Eastern Ag Belt.

• Looking at August as a whole, heat is expected to expand across the country, particularly in the Northwest US, Eastern Ag Belt, and Northeast US. Overall, August temperatures are predicted to average above normal. Precipitation chances will be better across the Central US and East Coast, while the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Western US are expected to be less active.

• Model predictions suggest a cool neutral or weak La Niña pattern developing into late summer and fall. This pattern typically favors a warmer Central and Eastern United States and a more seasonal Western US. It also suggests continued precipitation in the Ag Belt with a drier risk in the Southeast US.

• The October precipitation outlook indicates below-normal precipitation across the Southern US and East Coast due to a lack of a southerly jet stream. Better precipitation opportunities are expected in the Western and Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes and Eastern Ohio Valley. Fall precipitation patterns show better rain chances in the Western US, Northern Plains, Eastern Ag Belt, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast US, with a less active Southern US.

Soil Moisture & Precipitation Anomaly

Soil Moisture
Here is a look at the top 3 feet (100 cm) of soil moisture (in terms of percentiles) for this time of year. Key observations include the Lower OH Valley/TN through the South Central US seeing better soil moisture in the top 20th percentile (wet soil).Increasing soil moisture compared to last month can be found in portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Some areas that have started to trend drier for soil moisture and rank in the bottom 20th percentile (very dry) include the Upper OH Valley and into the Great Lakes, along with portions of the SE US.

Precipitation Anomaly
Here is a look at the precipitation anomaly (% of normal) since the start of July. The above normal rain through the first two-thirds of July across portions of NE, IA, and the Lower OH Valley, highlight the increasing soil moisture in these areas. It also outlines the areas that have missed out more often than not/coverage being more sporadic in the SE US and the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes where soil moisture is trending drier.

Early August Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Here is the temperature forecast for the first half of August. After a cool down throughout the first week of August, high pressure is favored to return into the E US/OH Valley that will usher in above/much above normal temperatures for this timeframe. The most substantial warmth will be in the E Ag Belt/Great Lakes with cooler temperatures setting up in the Western US. Some of the pattern drivers for this window can hint at a cooler risk into the Great Lakes/NE US. We will be monitoring this risk.

Precipitation
Precip chances for the early/middle parts of August will see the better precip chances look to work “over-the-top” of the ridge into the Rockies/Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/East Coast. While not completely void of moisture, the high pressure will help to allow for the OH Valley/E Ag Belt to see coverage more sporadic in nature. There will still be rain opportunities in this timeframe, however the better chances will look to set up further north.

August Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
As we look at August as a whole, the heat will look to continue to expand across the country. Some areas that will need watch is how substantial the warmth can be, include theNW US, E Ag Belt, and NE US. If the cooler air in the first half can linger on a bit longer, this can allow for cooler trends in these locations overall. Nonetheless, August as a whole, is expected to average out above normal for the country.

Precipitation
Taking a look into August overall, the better precip chances will continue to set up across the Central US and into the E Coast. The areas in the Ag Belt that can continue to be less active once will be the Great Lakes/OH Valley as the high pressure will continue to make precip in this area more sporadic vs the rest of the Ag Belt. The Western US will also look to continue to be below normal in terms of precip for the month.

Model Predictions & October Precipitation

Model Predictions
As we work into late summer and into fall, we continue to watch the evolution of El Nino / La Nina. The majority of the data is settling between the black and red lines, signaling a cool neutral/weak La Nina. This progression of the “ENSO” cycle would favor a warmer Central/Eastern United States with a more seasonal/cooler Western US. This would also tend to favor continued precip chances in the Ag Belt with a more notable drier risk into the SE US.

October Precipitation
Looking into harvest season, this is our updated October precip outlook. With the lack of a southerly jetstream, this will allow for below to much below normal precip across the Southern US and along the East Coast. Better precip opportunities will be in the W/N Plains and into the Great Lakes/E OH Valley. While the Central Plains, W OH Valley, and Upper Midwest can look to be drier than normal, these areas will still see precip opportunities into October.

Fall 2025 Outlook

Fall Temperatures
The map above is our updated thinking for Fall (September-October-November) in terms of temperatures. As noted above with the ENSO progression, above to much above normal temperatures are favored across much of the Central/E Ag Belt with cooler temperatures further into the SE US and West Coast. One risk to watch would be that although warmer than normal temperatures are favored, the core of the warmth (much above normal temperatures) will hold the risk of shifting a tad more easterly and be more confined (not as widespread).

Fall Precipitation
As we look at Fall (September-October-November) precipitation, we expect tol see the better rain opportunities stretching across the Western US and into the Northern Plains along with the E Ag Belt/Great Lakes/Interior NE US (especially into the second half of Fall). The lack of Southerly Flow will continue to allow for a less active Southern US, with October-November expected to be much drier than September. Locations into the Central Plains/Upper Midwest that are averaging out below normal can still see rain opportunities through Fall/Harvest, with the first half more favorable for rain opportunities vs the back half.

About the Report:

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