We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for early summer 2025.

Key Insights

• Current soil moisture remains very dry across the Ag Belt. The driest areas include Northern IL, Eastern SD and into NE. Multiple widespread systems have produced very wet conditions over the last 7 weeks in the South-Central US extending into lower OH Valley. Areas caught in-between these systems have been dry for the most part.
  
  
• The temperature forecast for June is looking to be above normal temperatures for most of the Central/SW US while the Eastern US should expect below normal temperatures in the first half of June, moving to above normal temperatures for the remainder of the month.
  
  
• Precipitation for the early/middle parts of June will be focused across the Eastern/Southeast US. Better rain chances can be expected into the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. Below to much below normal precipitation chances will continue to work across the Central Plains and Western US as we get into early/mid-June.
  
  
• Forecasts for later in the summer include above normal warmth across much of the Central/Western US with more volatile/more seasonal temperatures in the Eastern US. This progression would also favor the more active areas for rain to be in the Eastern/Southeast US with drier conditions across the Central/NW US.

Soil Moisture & Precipitation Rankings

Soil Moisture
Here is a look at the top 3 feet (100 cm) of soil moisture (in terms of percentiles) for this time of year. Key observations include the majority of the Ag Belt remains in the bottom 20th percentile (very dry) of soil moisture, with the most drastic dryness spanning across N IL, E SD, and into NE. Locations across the Ag Belt in a better moisture situation include the Lower OH Valley and NW Plains (W Dakotas). Areas of note seeing better soil moisture in the top 20th percentile (wet soil) stretch across much of the E Coast/SE US, along with OK and N TX.

Precipitation Rankings
Here is a look at precipitation rankings since April 1st. Multiple widespread systems over the last ~7 weeks have produced some of the wettest Mid-Springs ever across the South Central US, Mississippi Valley, TN Valley, and Lower OH Valley, along with the Northern Plains. With these systems being more “split flow”, this has allowed for areas caught in between systems to simply stay drier, such as the Central Plains, Great Lakes, and Upper OH Valley.

Early June Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Here is the temperature forecast for the first half of June. Above/much above normal temperatures will gradually expand from the Central/SW US further to the North and East. This will push the cooler than normal temperatures further to the East Coast/Mid-Atlantic/SE US for this timeframe. The first week of June is expected to be below normal in temperatures for the E Ag Belt/OH Valley, with above normal temperatures working in for the remainder of June.

Precipitation
Precip for the early/middle parts of June will be focused across the Eastern/Southeast US. One of the risks here is that the northern jet stream and source of moisture can become more active, allowing for better rain chances into the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. Nonetheless, below to much below normal precip chances will continue to work across the Central Plains and Western US as we get into early/mid June.

June Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Looking ahead to June as a whole, above normal temperatures will continue to expand to the West/Northeast, allowing for a majority of the country to average out warmer than normal. The most prominent warmth will be across the SW US, Rockies, and through the Central Plains. The below normal temperatures will continue to be pushed further into the SE US, which is where we can see temperatures average out cooler than normal for June.

Precipitation
Looking at June overall for precip, below normal rain chances will continue to expand further into the Central/Eastern Ag Belt, with the most prominent dryness into the Central Plains. The Eastern Ag Belt, while seasonal to slightly below normal, will still be able to see rain opportunities throughout the month. Above normal rain chances will continue to be settled across the East Coast and Southeast US.

Model Predictions & Summer Weather Outlook

Model Predictions
As we work into the heart of summer, we continue to watch the evolution of El Nino / La Nina. The majority of the data is settling between the black and red lines, signaling a neutral to weak La Nina. This progression of the “ENSO” cycle would favor above normal warmth across much of the Central/Western US with more volatile/more seasonal temperatures in the Eastern US. This progression would also favor the more active areas for rain to be in the Eastern/Southeast US with drier conditions across the Central/NW US.

Summer Temperature
The picture above is our current Summer temp forecast (June, July, August). We continue to favor above/much above normal temperatures to be fairly widespread across the Western/Central US, with the core of the most prominent warmth gradually shifting from the SW/Central Plains to start Summer into the High Plains/Canadian Prairies to end Summer. The Eastern US will be cooler in general, with the risk of seasonal/below normal temperatures across the SE US creeping further into the OH Valley.

Summer Precipitation Outlook

Summer Precipitation
The current Summer forecast for precipitation favors below normal chances to remain across much of the Central US with the most drastic dryness located across the Central Plains. Summer overall continues to favor a more active set up across the Eastern third of the US, with rain chances becoming more prevalent in the SW US in the second half of Summer (July/August).

Hurricane Season
The above image is a look at our initial Hurricane Season Outlook (typically June through November). Based on our analogs (favored and similar years) and the pattern in the Atlantic, we are favoring above normal chances in the Gulf Coast and NE US with below normal tropical activity in the SE/Florida areas. This will help favor the idea of a wetter set up further along the Eastern US as we get into Summer.

About the Report:

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