We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for early spring 2025. This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make smart choices for your farm. Each month, you’ll get a regional weather analysis, including precipitation, temperature trends and agronomic insights to help guide your planning.

Soil Moisture & Precipitation Rankings

Soil Moisture
Here is a look at the top 3 feet (100 cm) of soil moisture (in terms of percentiles) for this time of year. Key observations include the majority of the Midwest/Central US continuing to remain in the bottom 20th percentile (very dry) of soil moisture. This is likely to continue across the Plains as we get into spring. Areas seeing better soil moisture include the Lower OH Valley (S IN/KY), TN Valley, and the Northeast US.

Precipitation Rankings
Here is a look at the updated U.S. Drought Monitor Outlook. Areas like the Central US (especially the Northern and Western Plains) are seeing swaths of severe to extreme drought from little moisture since the fall of 2024. While there can be some relief into spring with moisture opportunities, early thinking for summer poses the risk of drought concerns reappearing.

March Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Here is the temperature forecast for the first ~2 weeks of March. Below normal temperatures will work back into the Eastern/Central US to start March after a brief warmup to end February. Once we get into the March ~11-17th timeframe, warmer temperatures will work back into the Eastern US, gradually working into the Central US. Below normal temperatures will look to be more confined into the High Plains/NW US.

Precipitation
Precip for the early/middle parts of March will be focused in the Eastern US. The most active corridor of precip will stretch along the East Coast, gradually working more so into the TN/OH Valleys and SE US into the 2nd week of March. This set up will allow for additional wintry risks across the Great Lakes/NE US with severe weather in the SE US. Drier concerns to start March will continue across the Northern Plains/Ag Belt and into the SW US.

March Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature
Looking ahead to March as a whole, below normal temperatures will win out for the Western US as colder temperatures work in for the middle/later parts of the month. Areas from TX to the NE US will look to average out above normal temperatures for the month as well. One risk here is a slower progression of the warmth mid-late March, allowing for cooler risks into the Great Lakes/W OH Valley.

Precipitation
Precipitation for the month of March will look to be prevalent across the Eastern US, with much above precip expected across the SE US/TN Valley. Below normal precipitation will look to continue across the South Central and SW US for the month of March. Due to ongoing dry conditions in the Western/Northern Plains, there is risk of “persistence” winning out, and drier trends occurring in this area.

Model Predictions & Spring Weather Outlook

Model Predictions
As we work into spring, we continue to watch the evolution of El Nino / La Nina. The majority of the data is settling between the Black and Red lines, signaling a cool neutral/weak La Nina. This progression of the “ENSO” cycle continues to favor a wetter start to spring across the Eastern 1/3 of the US with a drier Central US. This would also signal a cooler start to spring the further N/W in the United States and warmer the further S/E in the U.S.

Spring Temperature
Above is our latest Spring temp forecast (March, April, May). Colder temperatures for March/April will drive this forecast of below-normal temperatures across Western/Central US before warmer temperatures can arrive further into May. For the Eastern US, seasonal temperatures are favored across the OH Valley and SE US with a warmer to start spring before cooler signals the later we get into the season.

Spring Precipitation Outlook & Late Spring / Summer Drought Concerns

Spring Precipitation
The latest Spring forecast for precipitation continues to show the idea of an active Eastern US for the spring, especially in the E Ag Belt, SE US, and into the NE US. While analogs/data continues to show better precip chances for drought ridden areas like the Northern/Western Plains, the risk here is the better precip chances remain more so into the Canadian Prairies, allowing for drier concerns. The SW/South Central US will look to remain drier for Spring.

Drought Concerns
After looking at the progression of temperatures/precipitation now through May, we do have growing concerns of planting delays across the Eastern Ag Belt, Great Lakes, and portions of the TN Valley. The active pattern for March and April will prompt saturated soils and shorter dry gaps. Along with the wetter concerns, our favored analog years and the pattern overall would suggest later than normal frost/freeze dates across the region.

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.

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