We’ve teamed up with BAM Weather meteorologists to bring you a detailed, region-specific weather report for the remainder of the harvest season and beyond. This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make smart choices for your farm. Each month, you’ll get a regional weather analysis, including precipitation, temperature trends and agronomic insights to help guide your planning.

Agronomic Summary

The lack of soil moisture and forecasted precipitation is a concern for seeding cover crops in the Midwest. Broadcasting cover crops should be limited to irrigated fields or when precipitation is in the near-term forecast. If using a drill or a planter, there still may not be enough soil moisture, so germination could be significantly reduced.

A slightly delayed freeze risk compared to normal is a benefit to fall growth of those late summer seeded cover crops. The impact from cover crops seeded in the next couple weeks to is low; however, cold-season species are now the primary option. Warm weather in the extended outlook will help with mid-Fall growth.

The dry and warm outlook for much of Fall will allow time for fall fertilizer and field work; however, don’t let good weather enable unnecessary tillage. When moisture is limited, residue cover is your friend. Evenly distribute the chaff from the combine and leave the stalks standing. Come next spring, you will be thankful you did.

Additional Resources:

• Consideration for Tillage Decision this Fall After Drought
• Managing for Spring Cover Crop Moisture Consumption Starts in the Fall

Weather Outlook

Soil Moisture

Here is a look at the top 3 feet (100 cm) of soil moisture (in terms of percentiles) for this time of year. Key observations include much of the Midwest experiencing soil moisture in the lowest 10th percentile for this time of year (so very dry), with the SE US in the top 80th percentile of soil moisture thanks to recent heavy rains from Hurricane Helene.

Frost-Freeze Timeframe

The above image depicts the frost (light blue) and freeze (dark blue) forecast for the 10/10 - 10/20 time period. This is about “average” to a few days behind average for the first frost across the Northern US. The much above average temps for this time period + lack of very strong cold fronts will limit widespread hard freeze concerns through mid October.

Late October Temperature Outlook

Here is a look at the “back half of October” temp forecast. Most of the central US will be dealing with temps much above average for this time of year, with the eastern seaboard being the area that is likely the most seasonal to below average. Not much of a signal for the west coast to be notably above or below average with temps in this timeframe.

Late October Precipitation Outlook

Precip for the back half of October is likely confined to the far northern and eastern “peripheries” of the US. The “best” shots of moisture across the Central US will primarily come in the form of cold fronts that likely will not bring much rain with them, if any. The US/Canada border and the east coast will be two areas where there are better opportunities for moisture and those areas likely end up above average with rainfall in this time. At this distance, tropical threats look limited for the final ~10 days of October.

November Temperature Outlook

Working into November, much of the same is expected with above average temps favored for much of the country. Temperatures in November are likely not as above average for this time of year as they are forecasted to be in October.

November Precipitation Outlook

Given the orientation of the temperatures, precipitation in November is likely drier than average for much of the Southern US. Between the October and November forecasts, the South Central US is expected to continue to dry out over the next several weeks. Best chances for above average precipitation in November will be found in the northern ⅓ of the US.

ENSO Forecast

Moving into winter, the evolution of El Nino / La Nina will be critical. Between the black dashed lines is the winter time frame. Note how some of the models sit between the solid red and black lines, while others are below the solid red line. This is the difference between a “neutral” state, and a “La Nina” state. This will have major implications on the winter forecast. A more “neutral” state would likely allow for cooler temps.

Winter Temperature Outlook

Above is the current winter temp forecast (Dec-Jan-Feb). We are confident that the SE US sees above average temps for winter time frame, while the best chances for seeing below average temps reside in S Canada / N US. If La Nina is not as strong as data indicates, the below normal temps can be pulled further south into the Mountain West / Central US / OH Valley.

Winter Precipitation Outlook

The winter forecast suggests continued dryness across the South Central / ArkLaTex regions. Winter storms will likely bring the best opportunities for precip across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes regions. At this distance, there is not much support for several major winter systems moving through the Central US, but rather the Northern tiers of the US.

Snow Analogs

Finally, here is a look at the current snow departure forecast based on “analog years”. We are looking at past years and their atmospheric conditions that drive the weather patterns, and finding years that most closely match how we see the winter of 2024-2025’s pattern drivers playing out. These “analogs” further support the winter precip map shown above in terms of seeing below average snow/moisture in the Central US (browns), and above average snow/moisture in Southern Canada / Northern US (blues).

About the Report:

This report isn't just a forecast; it's a helpful tool to make informed decisions for your farm. As a member of ForGround by Bayer, you'll get a weather forecast just like this delivered straight to your inbox every month. Plus, no matter where you are on your regenerative agriculture journey, with ForGround, you will gain year-round access to science-based agronomic support, insights, and discounts, and will be the first to know when new potential revenue streams arise.